Marine and coastal ecosystems face a significant challenge with current and emerging issues. Various types of human activity have caused alterations in ocean chemistry and marine and coastal biodiversity, from fishing pressure to rising sea surface temperatures and ocean acidification. More than 80 percent of marine pollution is from land-based activities. An effective way to predict and identify future marine and coastal biodiversity is by using horizon scans. A new study has identified emerging threats to oceans that affect biodiversity.
What is horizon scanning, and what emerging issues will affect marine and coastal biodiversity?
Horizon scanning
Scientists use horizon scans to systematically examine information to identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues, and opportunities. Identifying these upcoming issues can help scientists, conservation practitioners, and policymakers better prepare and incorporate mitigation and exploitation into policy-making processes.
The general term for horizon scanning is for analyzing the future and considering how emerging trends and developments might affect current policy and practice. Understanding these issues helps policymakers in government to take a longer-term strategic approach and make present policy more resilient to future uncertainties. In addition, it allows policymakers to develop new insights and think outside the box. Planning is an iterative process of horizon scanning to help manage risk by planning events that might happen.
Emerging issues and threats
Currently, issues and threats to marine and coastal ecosystems include overexploitation of resources, expansion of anthropogenic activities, and climate change. Also, many studies have found a wide range of emerging issues and threats to biodiversity after conducting experiments with horizon scanning. Previous identifications through horizon scanning were microplastics, invasive species, and electric pulse trawling, but there have been no issues related to marine and coastal biodiversity. Using horizon scans to find emerging issues related to this will benefit oceans and human society by stimulating research and policy development.
In 2009, a team of 30 researchers from 11 countries came together to identify these emerging changes to marine and coastal ecosystems using horizon scanning and submitted a total of 75 new ocean issues that appeared on the science radar. The team of marine and coastal scientists, practitioners, and policymakers found three main categories that are listed below:
Recent studies have shown that most of these issues have become a threat to biodiversity. What are these emerging threats, and how can we reduce these threats?
Ecosystems
Horizon scanning has shown researchers that many ecosystem issues could become worse in the future. These impacts are from wildfires, increased toxicity, climate migration, coastal darkening, and altered nutrient cycling, which causes the destruction of ecosystems and a decline in species richness. Recent studies have found that rising ocean temperatures redistribute fish species. This is because fish cannot tolerate high temperatures, which forms dead zones and leaves vulnerable communities with low food supplies that will only worsen over time—eventually creating economic, social, and nutritional issues in small communities.
There are various severities with all these impacts on the ecosystem. Wildfires are increased by climate change. These fires are at an increasing scale since 2017 in Australia, Brazil, Portugal, Russia, and around the Pacific coast of North America. Releasing stored carbon, aerosols, particles, and materials that contain soluble forms of nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and trace metals including copper, lead, and iron. All are transported to coastal and marine ecosystems by rain or storms, leading to coastal darkening, mortality of benthic invertebrates, sedimentation, algal blooms, or eutrophication—making it hard for primary production due to no light penetration.
Coastal darkening consists of various human impacts that change color, clarity, and water composition. The underlying cause is primarily wildfires, fertilizer pollution, increased precipitation, storms, thawed permafrost, and coastal erosion. These factors elevate organic carbon, iron, and soot particles that are discharged into marine ecosystems, creating algae and plankton growth. Altering the oceans’ chemistry creates photochemical degradation and toxic chemicals that can last for generations. These alterations can cause marine ecosystems to shift, such as the distribution, mixing, and behavior of species in these areas. It can degrade coastal habitats and ecological functions, including carbon sequestration.
Resources
Resources are dwindling, and with the use of the horizon scan, studies have shown that it will only decrease more in the future if no actions are taken. Resource exploitation includes marine collagen, trade expansion, mesopelagic fishing, and lithium attraction is a prime example of a decline in resources and biodiversity. There is an increase in the commercial fishery and projected growth of harvesting mesopelagic fish that are 200 and 1,000 meters deep. This harvesting occurs due to other fish’s reduction in nutritional content since warmer oceans cause plankton to produce fewer fatty acids. At the same time, mesopelagic fish provide higher nutritional content and food supply during a time of global food insecurity. However, scientists have found that these fish serve as a colossal carbon sequestration pump and overharvesting them could cause more significant consequences to ecosystems and increase carbon within the atmosphere.
Additionally, lithium has become a growing demand for renewable energy technology, including batteries, which is a potential threat to marine biodiversity. The best place to extract lithium is in deep sea brine pools with high salt concentrations, yet recent surveys suggest otherwise due to the amount of marine life associated with those areas. Lithium is used in batteries that are in electric vehicles, which is now becoming an emerging issue.
New technologies
Advancements in technology are constantly being worked on to combat environmental challenges, including soft robotics, underwater tracking systems, and floating marine cities. All are essential for environmental issues; however, without plans for development, management, and governance, it will only complicate our future.
Studies showed that policymakers did not thoroughly think out responses to replacing fossil-fuel-based plastics. Biodegradable plastics were replaced by plant-based starches that do not biodegrade in natural conditions. These plant-based starches were designed to degrade through industrial processes. The concern is that it is now reaching the ocean and causing problems. A dozen studies have been completed on eco-toxicology on the effects of those materials. Half have found they contains chemicals as contaminated as plastics, causing the reduction of species abundance, decreased growth rates, and disrupted organisms’ physiology.
Finding better solutions
Horizon scans aim to prevent ecological catastrophes, such as solutions for the decline of biodiversity. Most of the emerging threats are associated with global warming. Global efforts need to happen to create better solutions by creating policies to slow the influences of these emerging issues. Still, it takes time to find solutions for complex environmental problems and should not be rushed when approached and replaced. All policies should be thought out carefully. Understanding new threats can help monitor, manage, and protect marine and coastal ecosystems. Appropriately using technologies to collect and mitigate may bring positive outcomes for marine and coastal biodiversity.
